S.S. Welliver

First statistics

White wins 37.35%

Black wins 27.41%

Drawn 35.23%

This is actually answering the question if black wins more often than white. But that is not the question. Draw is a position when neither white nor black can win, but this is really far from white and black being equal. Only if we would analyze draw positions and measure the positions value, we could really add something to this analysis. What I'm saying is that this analysis has to be refined. At least it would have to be done separately over all possible combinations over the first move (2 plies), since black and white have a predefined set of choices. They simply have to move some of these.

Once this is done, you would eliminate those that are giving a strict advantage to the white or black.

Additional analysis would have to say the percentage of games where one player played a blunder. This would eliminate most of the psychological elements of the statistics.

Now you are left with how humans, and this is very important to understand, humans play chess. With the advent of computer chess, you can find that almost all chess players call the moves a computer makes: a surgical and sterile, something that is mathematical correct, but generally devoid of any strict plan or idea.

And here comes the problem:

So if you take that the answer to 2 is very much but not sufficient, since it seems that computer will be able to reach 3500 or maybe even 4000 ELO quite soon, while humans will not go much beyond 3000 ELO any time soon, we probably can play, at best, at about 80% of how chess can be played in order to decide if chess is draw.

All together:

Regarding the way humans play chess, it seems that white might have a decisive advantage because the theory around how black should play in order to win is not developed enough. Since chess is a fractal game, any mistake black makes is then easily more detrimental to the final result than a similar error white would make.

Basically a small disadvantage a black has, because of the initial position AND knowledge we have, is putting him instantly at the edge of the known human logic of playing chess. A player must be more cautious and more inventive and any small mistake white would make requires more effort to turn into a full advantage.

Theory of chess grows, but the total effort of a relatively limited number of players will always be limited by human intelligence. At the moment, if you look at the statistics, you can see that the best lose a little bit more between black and white, Carlsen 10%, the rest about 60-80%. But none of them know how to win with black. In that sense, it is obvious that our current knowledge gives the white a sufficient advantage to get a draw easier. And this is placing black in a disadvantageous position not to make a mistake. And then word "human" comes into play.

• Players must drive away from the location and return when the B icon reappears on the map.
• They may have to repeat this if any NPC spawns in the mission location, including those in vehicles.
• Another option is to get to the adjacent docks, drive away by boat, and then return when the icon returns.

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