Murali Jariwala,

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After starting the month on a downward trend, rates reversed course in the second half of May in the wake of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike, regional bank turmoil, debt ceiling drama and mixed economic data.

The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.57% for the week ending May 25, according to Freddie Mac, a jump of 18 basis points from the previous week. A basis point is one-hundredth of one percentage point.

What’s more, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported even higher rates. The average contract rate for 30-year, fixed-rate conforming loans (loan balances at or below $726,600) hit 6.91% for the week ending May 26, the highest rate since November 2022, according to the MBA. In some cases, lenders quoted rates above 7%.

Consequently, rates have surpassed where they started in 2023.

Nonetheless, housing market watchers continue to hold out hope that mortgage rates peaked last fall and will resume their steady decline, assuming inflation continues to cool, the Fed backs off on rate hikes and Congress raises the debt ceiling limit.

Rates for home loans remain caught in a tug-of-war between high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s actions to rein in inflation, which often indirectly pushes long-term mortgage rates higher.

The Fed continued its efforts to dampen consumer spending towards attaining its 2% inflation target when it raised its federal funds rate—the borrowing rate for commercial banks and credit unions—by 25 basis points at its May meeting.

An indirect impact of this 10th consecutive rate increase is a 30-year, fixed mortgage rate over 2% higher since the Fed began rate hikes in March 2022.

Now Fed watchers are hoping for a rate hike pause when policymakers meet in June.

However, while the minutes from the Fed’s May meeting revealed that officials were in general agreement that the need for more rate hikes “had become less certain,” the country is still experiencing a robust job market, near-record low unemployment and still-overheated inflation, all of which could prompt the Fed to hike again if similar readings recur.

“n my view, data since the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has not provided sufficient clarity as to what we should do with our policy rate at the next meeting,” said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, at a recent event. “hether we should hike or skip at the June meeting will depend on how the data come in over the next three weeks.”

Expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 25-basis points jumped roughly 48% between April 26 and May 26, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

However, the recent failures of three regional banks have led to increased credit tightening, which Fed Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged could potentially end up doing some of the Fed’s work by functioning similarly to a rate hike.

So what’s the best strategy for prospective homebuyers in this uncertain economic climate?

“Be prepared to jump on a dip in rates,” says Robert Frick, ​​corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “But only if you have a property in mind that fits your budget.”

Here’s how other experts predict market conditions will affect the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage in the coming months:

President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a deal to suspend the debt ceiling over Memorial Day weekend, allowing the U.S. Treasury to supersede the debt limit—currently $31.4 trillion—and continue borrowing to pay the federal government’s bills until January 1, 2025.

Since hitting the debt ceiling on January 19, the U.S. Treasury has implemented “extraordinary measures” to prevent a first-ever default.

However, averting a default is not yet a guarantee, as Congress still needs to pass the debt ceiling bill, which will likely face opposition among some progressive and conservative lawmakers.

If Congress does not approve the debt ceiling deal by the June 5 deadline, the country will default on its financial obligations. A default would be catastrophic, causing significant harm to the American economy and U.S. credit and credibility. The nation could also plunge into a deep recession.

But what does all this mean for mortgage rates?

During remarks at a recent conference, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that a default would lead to an “economic catastrophe,” resulting in higher mortgage payments. Housing analysts also note that there may already be some collateral damage surrounding mortgage rates.

“Although the probability of a default remains low, even the fears and panic related to a potential government default could cause creditors to ask for higher interest rates from the U.S. Treasury, resulting in a significant increase in various borrowing costs, including mortgages,” said Jiayi Xu, economist at Realtor.com, in an emailed statement.

If the U.S. were to default, the housing market would plunge into a “deep freeze,” according to a recent Zillow report, with a sharp decline in home sales volume and the 30-year mortgage rate rising to a possible 8.4% peak.

“Much uncertainty surrounds these estimates, but there’s little doubt that a default would be a major negative shock to housing market activity,” said Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow, in the report.

Over 40% of U.S. mortgages originated in 2020 and 2021 when mortgage rates were at record lows. There were also some 14 million mortgage refinances during the same time. If you were lucky enough to secure a mortgage then, chances are 2023 is not the ideal time to refinance.

Even so, anytime rates pull back, more people tend to apply for mortgages. With rates still substantially higher than a year ago, however, purchase and refinance applications remain stuck near their lowest level since the 1990s, according to MBA data.

While refinancing options can lead to a lower monthly payment, not all of the options yield less interest over the life of the loan.

“Remember that just because you can get a lower rate, doesn’t mean you should immediately refinance,” says Matt Vernon, head of retail lending at Bank of America. “You may be paying a lower monthly mortgage, but you may have to also extend the life of your loan and refinancing could cost you more in interest.”

For example, refinancing from a 5% mortgage with 26 years left on it to a new, 30-year mortgage with a 4% rate will cause you to pay more than $13,000 in additional interest.

Before shopping around for a lender, you can find out how much you could save using a mortgage refinancing calculator.

“To make refinancing worthwhile, consider how the closing costs and the breakeven point—the time it will take for you to recover the money it costs to refinance—will affect your overall finances,” says Vernon. In other words, figure out how long you plan on staying in your home as the closing costs can eat up your savings if you sell shortly after refinancing.

The average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed is 7.24%, nearly double its 3.22% level in early 2022.

The average cost of a 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage has also surged to 6.62%, compared to 2.43% in January 2022.

In the current environment, ARMs might be more affordable than those with fixed rates. The latest average for a 5/1 ARM was 6.01%.

The current average rates for mortgage refinances are:

After kicking off 2023 at 6.48%, mortgage rates were topsy-turvy throughout Q1—and the wild swings have continued into Q2.

Rates embarked on a downward trend at the beginning of May only to reverse course the last two weeks, with the most recent 30-year fixed rate rising from 6.39% to 6.57%—higher than the 6.48% mark where the year started.

Though refinance applications rose for the first two weeks in May, volume retreated the final three weeks of the month. Refinance applications were down 7% for the week ending May 26, according to the MBA. The MBA also notes that refinance activity is 45% lower than last year when rates for the 30-year fixed hovered at a little over 5%.

“Most homeowners still have rates significantly lower than current levels, leaving only a small pool of borrowers with an incentive to refinance,” said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at MBA, in a press statement.

Despite ascending rates, 2023 could still be a good time for some homeowners to refinance.

“f you purchased a home a few years ago and rates were higher than today’s market, you may benefit from refinancing–especially if your credit score has improved,” says Vernon.

Or you still may have personal reasons to refinance either now or soon. For example, perhaps you have an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) and want to refinance to a fixed mortgage to secure your current rate or nab a lower rate. Because ARM rates fluctuate after the fixed period ends, refinancing to a fixed-rate mortgage can provide more stability as you plan your financial future.

The good news is that, despite elevated rates, there are methods you can employ to help you negotiate rates down enough that refinancing may make sense, especially if you bought a home between mid-October and early November last year when rates were at their pinnacle.

Because there are closing costs and fees associated with refinancing, many mortgage experts say refinancing only makes sense if you can snag a rate that’s at least 1% lower than your current rate.

Here are some actions you can take to whittle down your refinance rate:

While predicting mortgage rates for the next five years is a tall order, especially considering the unprecedented fluctuations over the past year, experts say the low housing inventory will be a key factor in where rates go over the long term.

“When rates come down, we’re going to be in store for another hot housing market where there are more buyers than sellers jacking up prices because we haven’t solved the problem” of low inventory, says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “It’s still that affordability problem. That’s going to stay with us.”

As far as which direction interest rates go in the years ahead, Fairweather expects declines. However, the timeline for this downward trend remains uncertain.

“In every scenario, rates are going to come back down,” she says. “It’s just a matter of when.”

However, experts say there are considerations beyond just low inventory that could potentially impact rates and broader housing market conditions in the coming years.

“The big question over the next five years is whether there are exogenous shocks (such as the war in Ukraine) or a rapid change in consumer sentiment that results in far less economic activity,” says Thomas Booker, head of strategy for Candor Technology. “Over this period, I suspect affordability will continue to be a challenge but if consumers can remain employed and constructive on their future—housing will be just fine.”

There are a complex set of factors that impact mortgage interest rates, including broader economic conditions, the monetary actions of the Federal Reserve (to some extent) and inflation. However, long-term mortgage rates are directly impacted by the bond market. The rate you’re offered on a mortgage will also depend on the lender you work with, its business costs and your financial profile.

Demand for mortgages can also affect rates, pushing it higher as available capital for lending tightens. Conversely, when there’s less borrower demand—as we’re seeing now due to average interest rates hovering in the 6% to 7% range—lenders might consider offering more competitive rates or other incentives to attract borrowers.

Getting an optimal rate on a home loan can save you a significant amount of money over time. Here are some tips that can help you get the best rate possible for your situation:

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