Sterling Garcia-Rulfo

With mixed US economic data, there is (lowish) volatility, with the domestic currency reaching at R18.20/USD today, on some US dollar strength on better-than-expected S&P PMI data on Friday, from a recent low of R17.42/USD on Friday.

The US PMI data in particular showed upwards price pressures at the production level which increased some expectations of US interest rate hikes, and so aided the US dollar, although by midday the rand had pulled back to R18.11/USD.

Friday’s US PMI report highlighted that “(s)tronger demand conditions support sharper growth in April, but also bring renewed inflation momentum”, as US business activity was seen to have quickened in April across the services and manufacturing sectors.

“Output rose at the sharpest pace for almost a year, as stronger demand conditions, improving supply and a steeper uptick in new orders supported the expansion. … The increase in output was the third in as many months.”

“The faster rise in activity was broad-based, with service sector firms registering the sharper rate of growth … linked this to greater customer confidence and … (s)ome … improvement in their ability to hire staff had boosted output.”

“April data indicated a pick-up in rates of input cost and output charge inflation. Operating expenses rose at a marked and historically elevated pace that was the steepest for three months, seen as contributing to core inflation”.

In the US, core CPI inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) rose to 5.6% y/y in the latest print, up from 5.5% y/y, obdurately high, and the PMI data raised some concerns it would further support Fed hawkishness. The core PCE deflator is due this week.

Financial markets are factoring in almost a 100% change of a 25bp hike in the US next week, while expectations of a recession are a lot lower, at 44% according to NABE (National Association of Business Economics). Uncertainty is elevated.

That is, the rand’s weakness over the past year has been driven by increased uncertainty and the downgrades of the global economic outlook, as uncertainty elevated, although another sharp depreciation in the rand is not the base case.

With global risks, and particularly a meaningful chance of US recession factored in (although likely not fully), the rand remains at risk of further weakness, but is not expected to lose another R4/USD over the next twelve months.

The NABE recession outlook is down from 54% in January, while Forbes’ recession tracker shows “more and more of our data points are drifting into neutral territory rather than remaining positive.”

“This could mean the U.S. is drifting closer toward a recession as well, … however, … not every data point we rank above would be weighted equally in deciding whether the U.S. is in recession.”

“If GDP can continue growing—which experts seem to believe is unlikely—while inflation moderates, we may be able to avoid a recession and come in for what the Fed has referred to as a soft landing.”

“Even the US unemployment rate, which figures heavily into when a recession might be called, is starting to weaken. The U.S. may not be in a recession yet, but things aren’t looking good.”

Sentiment, amongst other factors, has a part to play in whether the US achieves the NBR defined recession (National Bureau of Economic Research), of roughly a contraction in the business cycle (after the peak), with a number of areas of focus.

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