Chen Puneet

The economy continued its recovery from the 2020 recession, and by the third quarter goods and services output had returned to 2019 “pre-pandemic” levels. Gross domestic product is expected to have ended 2022 up 3%, more than what most economists had been predicting for much of the year.

This was due to a pickup in manufacturing goods for export, and a continued recovery in services that had still been lagging somewhat after the Covid-related restrictions.

Aside from better-than-expected economic growth and further employment gains, the peso was supported in 2022 by three principal factors:

Inflation was a problem last year, as consumer prices rose by the most since the year 2000. This was mostly because of increases in the cost of food. The Mexican government helped to keep inflation down by subsidizing gasoline and diesel using extra money it earned from prices of crude oil exported by Pemex, the state oil company.

The rate of inflation started to recede toward the end of the year, and was 7.8% at the end of December 2022. Food prices, though, were up nearly 14%.

The rise in inflation led the Bank of Mexico to raise its reference interest rate from 5.5% at the end of 2021 to 10.5% at the end of last year. The higher interest rates help the peso as they encourage investors to buy the currency, but can also discourage consumers from spending or small firms from taking on credit to grow their business.

Remittances —money sent to Mexico by people living abroad, principally from the USA— reached $53.1 billion by November, 13% more than in the first 11 months of 2021.

Tourism also grew. The number of foreign visitors in the January-October period rose 19% to 52.7 million, with spending up 49% at $22.5 billion. About 17.2 million tourists arrived by air, 56% more than the previous year, but there were 10% fewer tourists crossing the border and staying for at least one night.

Mexico’s peso is a free-floating currency on the world’s foreign exchange markets. It’s one of the world’s most-traded currencies and is the most-traded of Latin America’s currencies.

In Banxico’s December 2022 survey, the median estimate for the exchange rate at the end of 2023 was 20.80 pesos per dollar, with estimates ranging from 19.25 to 22 pesos per dollar.

As in 2022, economists are somewhat pessimistic about economic growth prospects for this year, expecting GDP to increase just 0.9%. But they also expect inflation to slow to 5.1%.

Currency forecasts reflect what could be expected given estimates for inflation, economic growth, interest rates and other economic variables, both in Mexico and the US, but they don’t consider extraordinary events as these are unknowns.

It’s worth noting that foreign current exchange-rate predictions are subject to many variables and uncertainties, with consensus estimates changing as events unfold and the exchange rate fluctuates in response to those events throughout the year. For example, in December 2021 the Banxico survey estimated the peso would close at around 20.65 to the US dollar; in fact the Mexican currency closed the year more than one peso stronger than that consensus estimate.

What determines the exchange rate in the market are investors who buy pesos to invest in Mexican stocks and bonds; or dollars to shift money into US investments; companies that buy dollars to pay for imports or to make foreign debt payments, or that buy pesos to exchange dollars earned from exports; banks that receive remittances in dollars and pay them out in pesos; and of course, international travel which tends to favor Mexico with a surplus given its popular tourism resorts.

Aside from the U.S. dollar, the Bank of Mexico publishes indicative daily rates for the peso against a number of other currencies, including the Canadian dollar, the euro, and the yen.

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As the trend towards automated processing increases, and as the demands of the financial business become more complex, Oracle FLEXCUBE, a sophisticated package, breaks down these complexities by its quick, easy-to-use features, which are essential to successful financial management.

The Funds Transfer (FT) Module that constitutes a part of Oracle FLEXCUBE is a front office system that handles the processing of the transfer of funds (local and foreign) between Financial Institutions. Financial institutions or banks can initiate these transfers for themselves, or on behalf of their customers.

The FT Module is a comprehensive transaction handling and management system, which integrates with the overall system for settlement of payments, charges, commissions and MIS. The system handles all the necessary activities during the life of a contract, once it is booked. All the relevant account balances will be updated when Transfers are processed.

Exchange rate conversions are automatically effected in cases of Cross-currency Transfers based on the rate and method of conversion that you define. The essence of a funds transfer (i.e., transfer of money and the generation of messages) is handled comprehensively by this module.

With regard to funds transfers, you will encounter some basic terms frequently, which are listed below:

A Funds Transfer is a sequence of events that results in the movement of funds from the remitter to the beneficiary. It is also defined as the remittance of funds from one party to itself or to another party through the banking system. It is an essential support function for other financial products such as loan repayment, settlement of trade bills etc., apart from being an important stand-alone function in a typical bank.

Classifying Funds Transfers

Funds Transfers can be classified as Incoming, Outgoing or Internal depending on the direction of flow of funds in the transfer. Incoming or Outgoing transfers are indicative of whether funds are coming in or going out of the bank. Internal transfers indicate funds being transferred within the bank itself (between two accounts within the Bank). No other financial institution is involved in such transfers. Based on the parties involved in the transfer, Funds Transfers can also be classified as customer transfer, bank transfer and bank transfer for own account.

Customer Transfer: A customer transfer is a transfer in which either the ordering customer or the beneficiary customer, or both, are non-financial institutions, i.e. at least one party in the chain is not a financial institution.

Bank Transfer: A bank transfer refers to the transfer of funds between the ordering institution and beneficiary institution. Here the originator and beneficiary and all intermediary parties are financial institutions.

Bank Transfer for Own Account: A transfer initiated by a bank to transfer funds from one of its accounts (held in one Bank) to another account (held in another Bank).

Messaging which constitutes an important ingredient of a Funds Transfer is supported. In Oracle FLEXCUBE, FTs can be executed using any of the following media types:

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