Adhik Dass

More than half (or 53 percent) of experts polled for Bankrate’s First-Quarter Economic Indicator poll say the Fed’s key benchmark interest rate will peak in a target range of 5-5.25 percent, suggesting officials will likely only hike rates one more time.

But that doesn’t mean rate cuts are around the corner. More than four-fifths of economists (or 82 percent) say officials likely won’t begin cutting borrowing costs until 2024, even as the recent failure of the nation’s 16th largest bank risks worsening financial stability.

Both estimates are largely in line with fresh projections from officials in March. The Fed penciled in a 5-5.25 percent peak interest rate for 2023, after which officials see rates falling to 4.25-4.5 percent by the end of 2024.

The survey findings are notable because they suggest economists are still seeing eye-to-eye with policymakers on the U.S. central bank at a time when investors are starting to divulge. Market participants expect the Fed will lift rates one more time before turning around and reducing borrowing costs as soon as July, according to CME Group’s FedWatch.

Where borrowing costs end up has massive implications for consumers. Higher rates translate to more expensive mortgages, auto loans and credit cards, and they risk harming hiring and the economy. On the other hand, they make it an even more lucrative time to be a saver — who’ve already been seeing the highest savings yields in more than a decade thanks to the rapid run up in interest rates.

Nearly one-fifth (or 18 percent) of economists say the Fed will have to hike interest rates two more times — the second largest majority among respondents. Meanwhile, nearly an eighth (or 12 percent) say the Fed has three more rate hikes. Just 6 percent say the Fed is already done raising interest rates.

“The Fed has a hammer, so everything must be treated as a nail,” says Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses.

The Fed’s rate path depends on what happens with inflation. Consumer prices have likely already peaked, with inflation falling to 6 percent in February after soaring as high as 9.1 percent last June. Yet, price pressures to start the year haven’t been cooling as quickly as they were just three months ago.

Just 18 percent of economists said the Fed could cut rates this year, down sharply from 38 percent in the fourth-quarter poll.

The economists who do project rate cuts point to how much data can lag behind what’s happening within the U.S. economy. Rent prices, for example, have mounted a continuous surge since early 2021, with those costs most recently rising 8.8 percent in February from a year ago. Shelter accounted for more than 70 percent of February’s increase, according to the report, even as real-time measures show new lease prices are falling. The reason for the delay is by design: Leases roll over only once a year, meaning they aren’t immediately reflected in the index.

Recent bank failures could also dampen consumer spending and business investment, as financial institutions offer fewer loans to retain enough money on hand to cover their customers’ needs.

All of those factors could cause prices to quickly decelerate, suggesting the Fed doesn’t have to be so aggressive by keeping rates at their decade-plus high.

Even so, inflation is currently coming from so-called “stickier” components, meaning prices that change relatively slowly, according to an analysis from the Atlanta Fed. The Fed’s preferred way of measuring inflation — based on the Department of Commerce’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which already tracks lower than the Labor Department’s consumer price index (CPI) — is seen as moderating to 3.3 percent by the end of 2023.

Fed officials have reiterated they’re more worried about pulling back too soon — leading to elevated inflation for longer — than they are about overshooting on interest rates and raising borrowing costs too much.

“It’s unlikely that inflation will reach the Fed’s 2 percent target in 2023,” says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp. “As such — barring any major recession or unforeseen economic shock — the Fed is unlikely to cut rates until at least 2024.”

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It turns out I missed these two:

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